Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.
~Nate Silver, 538
A poll is a poll is a poll but the math behind these polls is showing a big undeniable trend. The Romney campaign is going to have to do something big in order to change the math. Up till now – their campaign has been based off of mostly lies and I can’t help wondering if people are seeing that. Every politician fudges truth or embellishes but Romney falsely creates a new reality. He will say anything regardless of how true or untrue it is; that just isn’t a concern for him.
Bill Clinton’s speech was THE turning point of the convention and it helps that fact checkers found his excellent, perfectly presented speech as accurate (source) as opposed to the media’s open dissent for the Romney campaign’s lies (source).
Nate Silver explains what’s happening with the bounce HERE:
The reason is that the tracking polls are not turned around instantaneously. The Gallup poll, for instance, now consists of interviews conducted between Saturday, Sept. 1, and Friday, Sept. 7. That means that many of the interviews in the poll still predate the effective start of the Democratic convention on Tuesday night.
If you do the math, it implies that Mr. Obama must have been leading Mr. Romney by 10 or 11 points in the minority of the poll conducted since Mr. Clinton’s speech for him to have gained three points in the survey over all.
In the table below, I’ve run through the same calculation for the other tracking polls. The results imply that Mr. Obama has run about nine points ahead of Mr. Romney in the portion of the Ipsos poll conducted since Mr. Clinton’s speech, about eight points ahead in the RAND poll, and about four points ahead in the Rasmussen poll.
The latest daily tracking poll showed Obama, a Democrat, with a lead of 4 percentage points over Romney. Forty-seven percent of 1,457 likely voters surveyed online over the previous four days said they would vote for Obama if the November 6 elections were held today, compared with 43 percent for Romney.
“The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen… but it’s here,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, referring to the “bounce” in support that many presidential candidates enjoy after nominating conventions.
The USA Today gives their overall HERE:
At the moment, though, the president leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney by five percentage points in the Gallup Poll, by four points in the Reuters/Ipsos Poll and by two points in the Rasmussen Poll. That reflected a swing of five or six points from their standing before the Republican convention opened two weeks ago.
What’s more, Obama’s job-approval rating in the Gallup Poll on Friday and Saturday rose to 52%, the highest it has been since it was boosted by the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. On Sunday, it dipped to 50%, generally considered a crucial milestone for presidents seeking reelection.
The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.“Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.
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